Has China Peaked? A Debate.

For much of the past three decades, there was widespread consensus that China’s continued rise was inevitable. But more recently, an alternative school of thought has become popular: China has already peaked. 

Which theory is correct? It depends who you ask. 

In 2021, Michael Beckley argued in FP that China’s demographic challenges and a decline in productivity would lead to economic stagnation. Together with his Danger Zone co-author Hal Brands, Beckley made the term “Peak China” mainstream. But Keyu Jin, the author of The New China Playbook, counters that Beijing could helm the world’s largest economy within the next decade—if it continues its innovative approach to local competition.     

Join FP’s Ravi Agrawal for a timely debate between Beckley and Jin. 

Listen to the debate here.