Backdoor Negotiations Over Ukraine Would Be a Disaster
August 03, 2023
Skyrocketing costs for fuel and food in the global south due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine are spurring mediation offers between Kyiv and Moscow from China, the African Union, and even Saudi Arabia. U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has welcomed these initiatives, both to woo support from countries that have not condemned Russia and because the Biden administration seems to genuinely believe the oft-repeated but untrue cliché that all wars end in negotiation. The White House keeps saying the United States will not negotiate over Ukraine’s head—but encouraging mediation risks repeating the mistake of Trump and Biden policy in Afghanistan: delegitimizing a government the United States is supposed to be supporting.
The U.S. desire to abandon Afghanistan led to a bad deal with the Taliban over the heads of the Afghan government that the United States spent more than 20 years and $2 trillion fostering. Wanting an end to U.S. involvement, the Trump administration negotiated directly with the Taliban—a terrorist organization—agreeing that U.S. forces would withdraw within 14 months in return for the Taliban “preventing terrorism” and not attacking U.S. troops. Both the Trump and Biden administrations continued with the abandonment of Afghanistan despite the Taliban not honoring the terms of the agreement, leaving the Kabul government further delegitimized and fighting a politically and militarily revived Taliban without U.S. support.
Today, there is a justifiable fear among Ukrainians and the United States’ European allies that the cost of supporting Ukraine, the political effort required to sustain congressional and public support (of which the administration has put in far too little), and the risk of escalation with Russia may cause Washington to abandon Kyiv to an ill-judged peace effort that threatens Ukraine’s long-term stability.
