Defanging Russian Nuclear Threats
July 21, 2023
It will have been easy to miss with all the excitement of a mutiny by the Wagner Group marching unhindered hundreds of miles toward Moscow, but Russian analysts are talking seriously about nuclear weapons use. Not in the context of Russia’s unsuccessful war in Ukraine, but against NATO and the United States.
Nuclear threats by Russian officials and pundits aren’t new, of course. Russian President Vladimir Putin has implicitly threatened nuclear use throughout the conflict, deployed nuclear weapons in Belarus, and used his strategic nuclear forces to deter NATO from directly intervening in the war. Putin claimed he’s put Russian nuclear forces on alert. The nuclear chatter has revived concerns that Russia, if faced with defeat in Ukraine, could choose to use nuclear weapons.
I believe it is prudent to plan for nuclear escalation and that there are four scenarios for Russian nuclear employment that policymakers should consider. They range from a nuclear strike on Ukrainian armor to a strike on NATO territory. These scenarios may be unthinkable, but it is important to talk through them so that U.S. officials and European allies can grapple with the challenges that any such escalation would entail, and plan a response accordingly.
