What Shanghai Cooperation Expansion Means

When it comes to diplomacy and defense, much of the focus on Donald Trump both during the campaign and his first months in office has focused on his approach to NATO, his alleged lack of commitment to that defensive alliance, and what his focus on the bottom line of each NATO member’s defense investment might mean should NATO face a challenge. On the diplomatic and political side, there are similar dynamics at play, with regard to the broader U.S. approach to the European Union in the age of Brexit.

All of these debates about NATO and Europe are important but what they tend to miss the rapid growth of the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO), an alliance of autocracies and flawed democracies, which are at best non-aligned and at worst anti-American.

The SCO formed in June 2001 under the leadership of China and Russia. Original members also included Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Uzbekistan, and Tajikistan. Mongolia, Iran, Afghanistan, and Belarus all have observer status. Iran is on the verge of joining as a full member. As Turkey has pulled away from Europe and democracy, its leader Recep Tayyip Erdogan has also hinted that Turkey might instead look to a future within the SCO.

What should worry U.S. officials is that both India and Pakistan joined the SCO last week, an event which attracted scarcely any mention at all in mainstream Washington press. That Pakistan might want to side with China and Russia is no surprise. And, given Pakistan’s support for terrorism and groups responsible for the deaths of hundreds of Americans, it’s getting the are partners it deserves. But India’s accession is worrisome, given its status as the world’s largest democracy, not to mention its growing weight on the world stage and the assumption among many U.S. policymakers that it is the best counterweight to Russia in the region.

The SCO may not be a formal military organization but it matters strategically. The 2005 SCO summit decision to disallow any military bases from non-SCO members forced America’s departure first from Uzbekistan and later Kyrgyzstan, two countries that had leased space to U.S. forces supporting the mission in Afghanistan. As Defense Secretary Mattis prepares a new Afghanistan strategy to prevent strategic collapse there, Pakistan’s accession to the SCO might throw a wrench into the chief logistical route for U.S. forces in Afghanistan. Behind-the-scenes Russia-Iran-Turkey dealings on Syria also presage a more active and expanded SCO.

In an ideal world, the United States would not need to be the world’s policeman and could welcome the rise of others to fill that vacuum. But when the others are Russia, China, Iran, Pakistan, and Turkey, the United States should be vigilant. As NATO’s malaise continues and as the European Union stumbles from one existential crisis to another, few in Washington are addressing the dark clouds gathering on the horizon.