Housing Market Indicators – Overview

The AEI Housing Market Indicators present a comprehensive picture of the state of the housing market in America. We track: 

                   – home prices and supply,
                   – new construction sales and additions to the housing stock,
                   – lending standards,
                   – housing affordability,
                   – land prices,
                   – and many other metrics.

We provide these indicators in near real-time at fine geographies and for different price tiers, including entry- and move-up level.

Our reports, along with monthly and topical briefings, as well as the (forthcoming) market trends report connect the dots on housing market indicators allowing data-driven decision making for governments, private sector, and consumers.

The data include visualizations and are free to download. This table below provides links to and a detailed overview of the various AEI Housing Market Indicators.

Overview Table

HPA = Home Price Appreciation;  NC = New Construction;  FTB = First-time Buyer; Tier/Segment = Price Tier/Market Segment

Indicator	Key Metric(s)	Additional Features	Geography	Frequency	Tier/ Segment	Purpose
Home Prices & Supply	HPA, Months’ Supply	Interactive maps & price tier cutoffs	National, largest 40 metros	Monthly	Overall & 4 tiers	Real-time data on HPA & months’ supply for 40 metros.
National & Metro Housing Market Indicators	HPA, Months’ Supply, Mortgage Default Rate, Average Sale Price, NC Share of Sales	Reports for each metro & interactive maps	National, largest 60 metros	Quarterly	Overall & entry-level & move-up	A more comprehensive analysis of the housing market in 60 metros (but slightly less recent & only for 2 market segments).
Mortgage Default Rate Risk Index	Mortgage Default Rate	Time series data on credit scores, CLTVs, DTIs, & other key metrics	National	Monthly	Overall, first-time & repeat buyers	Comprehensive resource for mortgage origination & risk data for agency loans.
The State of the Housing Market	County & State data:  HPA,  Months’ Supply,  NC,  Mortgage Default Rate,  Entry-Level    Price-to-Income Ratio	A deep dive into entry-level housing affordability	State & county, some metro indicators	Annual	Varies by indicator	A multitude of housing market indicators at the county & state level. These data are aggregated to derive trends on the state of the housing market.
The Carpenter Index	Share of Entry-level Sales Affordable to the Average Carpenter Household	Metro rankings, affordability heat map, change in affordability, & other affordability metrics	Largest 100 metros	Annual	Entry-level	“They can build it, but can they afford it?” The study ranks housing affordability in the entry-level market for 100 metros for blue-collar workers.
The Tech Worker Index	Share of Home Sales Affordable to the Average Tech Worker Household	Metro rankings, geographic trends, and the impact of work from home (WFH).	Largest 100 metros	Annual	Overall	The index investigates both affordability trends and why the WFH phenomenon is destined to have a large and continuing impact in the years ahead.
Best & Worst Metros to Be a FTB	Price-to-Income Ratio for over 3 million FTB Purchases	FTB stats on home prices, income, price/sq. ft., & sq. ft. of living area	Largest 50 metros	Annual	First-time buyers	This study ranks 50 metros based on their affordability for first-time home buyers.
New Construction	NC Share of Sales	Interactive  maps/charts and proposed policy solutions.	National, State, County, ZIP, Census Tract	Quarterly	Overall & 3 tiers (combines med-high & high)	Real-time NC data at the census tract level & above.
Land Price and Land Share	Change in Land Share and Land Prices	Interactive maps on land prices, land shares	ZIP (census tract, county, metro, state, & nation)	Annual	None	The change in land share has been found to be highly predictive of house price boom/bust cycles.
Market Trends Report	HPA, Mortgage Default Rate, Home Sales, Months’ Supply, New Construction Share	Current and historical market trends affecting the market price and intrinsic value of the subject property and its neighborhood	107+ million U.S. property addresses	Updated as data become available	Overall & 4 tiers	Provides trends affecting the market price & intrinsic value of the subject property, the subject’s neighborhood, & its broader market areas.
Collateral Risk	Relationship btw. land shares, mortgage default risk, HPA, and borrower income or minority status.	An explanation for housing boom & bust cycles by tracking collateral risk before & after the Great Recession and during the current cycle.	majority of ZIP Codes/Census Tracts	Annually	None	Identify areas most at-risk from an economic downturn
Housing Arbitrage Index	Price Ratio (Median for New to Old Home)	Home sq. ft. ratio, price/sq. ft. ratio, change in walk score and year built.	CSA/CBSA	Quarterly	None	Measure how much money an individual could save by selling a home in their current location and moving to another.
Housing and Economic Analysis Toolkit (HEAT)	Home price & supply, migration trend	Walkable-Oriented Development map, new home construction and as-built density relationships, light-touch density map.	Down to Census Blocks	Annually	None	Helps quantify and visualize housing supply shortages, and how modest increases in density can help solve them.

Questions

Questions about the AEI Housing Market Indicators should be directed to Edward Pinto ([email protected]) or Tobias Peter ([email protected]).