The AEI Housing Center is providing a near-real time Housing Market analysis having started during the coronavirus (COVID-19) era and continuing to the present (Previous iterations of the report were called “Housing Finance: Insights on the New Normal” and “Housing Market Nowcast”. Released every week or so, the Housing Finance Watch and Inflation Watch will provide insights on:
Rates and volumes for purchase and refinance loans
Home Price Appreciation (HPA)
Analysis of housing market trends
Inflations effects on the housing market and the economy as a whole
Changes in consumer spending
Much more
What is the significance
The Housing Finance Watch is possible thanks to data from Optimal Blue, a rate lock software provider with roughly a third market coverage.
After extensive historical analysis of Optimal Blue data going back 7 years, we have concluded that these rate lock data track closely those reported in our National Mortgage Risk Index (NMRI), which cover 99% of the agency market.[1] As a result, today’s Housing Finance Watch will provide an advance look at tomorrow’s housing market as today’s rate locks will become next month’s home purchases and mortgages.
[1] While not all rate locks will be originated or the Optimal Blue data cover the entire market, our analysis of the data has found them to be instructive as the changes over short time periods provide a useful signpost for what’s to come. While Optimal Blue data are used, Edward Pinto and Tobias Peter are solely responsible for the analysis contained herein.
