Oz, Fetterman, and the Future of Pennsylvania Politics
American Enterprise Institute
June 26, 2023
- Democratic over-performance in the 2022 Pennsylvania Senate contest was more pronounced in major media markets. Democrats also dominated with grassroots donors, which allowed them to build enthusiasm and cash advantages.
- John Fetterman proved exceptionally strong at winning back Barack Obama–Donald Trump voters in rural Pennsylvania, while Mehmet Oz failed to excite the Republican base and capitalize on Republican-issue advantages.
- In an otherwise strong campaign, Fetterman failed to turn out minority voters in urban areas and instead relied on white working-class reversion.
- Though Pennsylvania will return to toss-up status in the 2024 presidential contest, Republicans would be wise to not repeat the mistakes of 2022—starting with avoiding candidates who have lost Pennsylvania in the past.
Executive Summary
The 2022 midterms defied expectations across the political spectrum. Pundits and pollsters alike predicted a red wave would crash across much of the country, washing out dozens of Democratic representatives and a handful of senators. It was reasonable, then, to predict sizable Democratic losses in November 2022: President Joe Biden’s approval rating hovered around 40 percent—even lower than Obama’s in 2010 and Clinton’s in 1994. However, rather than the shellacking most expected, Democrats kept their House losses to single digits and gained a Senate seat.
In Pennsylvania, John Fetterman’s five-point win over Mehmet Oz shattered even the most optimistic of Democratic projections. In the other marquee statewide race, Josh Shapiro beat state Sen. Doug Mastriano for the governor’s seat by an astounding 15 points. As Democrats rejoiced, Pennsylvania Republicans were left wondering what had gone wrong.
This report analyzes the 2022 Pennsylvania Senate race. Our comprehensive postmortem finds that Fetterman’s unique blue-collar appeal—combined with Oz’s particularly weak campaign—propelled Democrats to victory.
The 2022 midterms in Pennsylvania reinforced that candidate quality matters, even in an era of record polarization. The GOP’s nomination of Oz and Mastriano—when matched against a pair of surprisingly strong Democrats in Fetterman and Shapiro—proved electorally disastrous. In 2024’s presidential contest, Pennsylvania should snap back to its battleground status, but the GOP should not forget the lessons of 2022. Up and down the ballot, the Republican Party will be much better served by running candidates who are not proven electoral losers.