The Peril of Peaking Powers: Economic Slowdowns and Implications for China’s Next Decade

From ancient times to the present, rising powers have taken up arms to reorder the world. Yet such violent revisionism poses a puzzle: If a rising power is profiting from the existing order, why would it disrupt that progress with a reckless fit of expansion? One reason is slowing economic growth. Over the past 150 years, peaking powers, meaning rising powers whose economic booms have slowed but not yet stopped, have been the most dangerous kind of country. An extended period of rapid growth equipped them with the means to shake up the world, and then a protracted growth slowdown motivated them to move aggressively to try to rekindle their rise. Peaking power dynamics help explain some of the most consequential geopolitical events in modern history, including the surge of U.S. imperialism in the late nineteenth century, the outbreak of World War II, and Russia’s 2014 aggression against Ukraine. These findings amend classic theories of great power conflict and have ominous implications for contemporary Chinese foreign policy.

When and why do rising powers expand aggressively abroad? From ancient times to the present, ascendant powers have taken up arms to enlarge their empires and reorder the world. Yet such violent revisionism poses a puzzle: If a rising power is profiting from the existing order and gaining ground on its rivals, why would it disrupt that progress with a reckless fit of expansion? Why would it not continue to amass power quietly and overtake its competitors without firing a shot? Such a country presumably could follow Chinese leader Deng Xiaoping’s maxim to “hide its capabilities and bide its time.”

Read the full article at International Security.