Iran’s Grand Strategy Has Fundamentally Shifted

Since the 1979 revolution, Iran’s leadership has single-mindedly attempted to dominate the Middle East and drive the United States and Israel out. Throughout, Tehran has relied overwhelmingly on the proverbial stick to do so: trying to subvert the Arab states by blackmail or insurgency while waging a relentless terrorist campaign against the United States and Israel.

While those goals haven’t changed, the Iranians appear to have altered their grand strategy in a fundamental way. We can never be certain because Iranian decision-making is always opaque, but Iran suddenly seems to have discovered that carrots can be useful tools of foreign policy as well. Almost everywhere you look, Tehran is now offering positive inducements to cooperation and mostly throttling back on its strong-arm tactics. The question now facing the United States is how to adjust its own policy in return.

There are many examples of Iran’s shift. With Chinese mediation, Iran struck a deal with Saudi Arabia that, on its face, gives Riyadh far more than Tehran gets. As a result, the two states have resumed diplomatic relations after a decadelong break. They are even talking about cooperating to prevent Sudan from descending deeper into civil war.

Read more in Foreign Policy here.