Taiwan: The “ROC” In A Hard Place
Published By: Army University Press
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KEY POINTS
• The People’s Liberation Army (PLA) is capable of challenging the security of the Republic of China (ROC) or Taiwan in the air and at sea, and possibly complicating US efforts to intervene in a conflict.
• Taiwan is striving to respond to this challenge by recapitalizing and reforming its military and by developing and implementing a new military strategy.
• Insufficient defense spending, manpower shortages, and an uncertain commitment to the new defense strategy threaten to undermine Taiwan’s efforts to grapple with the threat from the People’s Republic of China (PRC).
Two competing narratives about Taiwan’s defense transformation and military modernization efforts contradict each other. Taiwan’s efforts are either inadequate or advancing steadily; either focused on big-ticket items at the expense of more useful capabilities or successfully recapitalizing while reforming as well. The truth lies somewhere in the middle.
Taiwan must grapple with Beijing threatening to use military force to coerce the island state into unifying with the PRC. In his January 2019 speech to mark the fortieth anniversary of the Message to Compatriots in Taiwan, Chinese President Xi Jinping explicitly refused to rule out the use of force against 328 Taiwan, avowing, “We will not promise to give up the use of force and we reserve the right to use any necessary measures.” Although the Department of Defense (DoD) describes China as “prepared to defer the use of military force as long as it believes unification with Taiwan over the long-term remains possible and the costs of conflict outweigh the benefits,” the pressing question is whether Beijing continues to believe peaceful unification remains possible given political and generational trends within Taiwan.
Fewer Taiwanese seem to be interested in unification. Given this trend, China may no longer see a realistic potential for peaceful unification. Taiwan’s Ministry of National Defense (MND) asserts in its 2013 ROC National Defense Report China “plans to build comprehensive capabilities for using military force against Taiwan by 2020.” China having set this goal during a time of cross-strait détente—when cross-strait relations were, at least on the surface, stable— suggested Beijing was not confident in unification on peaceful terms even then.
