Housing Finance Watch (Week 31, 2023)

By Edward J. Pinto | Tobias Peter | Sissi Li

August 08, 2023

PDF to full report

Key takeaways:

Key takeaways:

  • The median purchase rate rose 1/8 ppts. over the past week to 6 7/8%, while Mortgage News Daily reported a daily avg. 30-year rate of 7.06% on August 7th.
  • Purchase volume was down 2% from last week, down 45% from the same week in 2019, and down 30% YTD compared to 2019.
  • Y-o-y HPA was 2.9% in June 2023 and is projected to increase to 4% in July, August, and the first half of September 2023.
  • Despite the subdued rate of purchase activity and relatively high rates, y-o-y HPA has begun to accelerate. This is because buyers are well-qualified and highly motivated by historically tight supply. Cooling yet still strong job numbers, low levels of foreclosures in most areas of the country, work from home, and continued home price arbitrage opportunities provide further support.